2009年4月11日土曜日

The Geithner put : option formula

In the previous post , I showed the general formula of break-even purchase price under Geithner plan.

In that post, I showed the gain/loss of the investment fund as follows:
   w(P - Pb)   if P >= (1-k)Pb
   -wPb      if P < (1-k)Pb
where:
P is true price of the loan,
Pb is the purchase price,
(1-k) is ratio of non-recourse loan offered by FDIC (6/7 in case of Geithner plan),
w is ratio of fund money in investment (1/2 in case of Geithner plan; the rest(=1-w) is funded by Treasury).

It also can expressed in option formula as follows:
   w{Max(P-Pb , -kPb)}
  =w{Max(P-(1-k)Pb , 0)-kPb}

This is the formula of call option with strike price=-(1-k)Pb and option purchase price=kPb (See image below).


By applying the above option formula, it can be calculates as
   0.5*{(0.5*(100-84*6/7)+0.5*0)-84/7}=1
which corresponds to Nemos's result.

As Nemo showed, the money fund put in is wkPb=0.5*1/7*84=6. So the fund performance reaches 1/6*100=16.67%.

FDIC gain/loss also can be expressed in option formula as follows:
   -Max(0 , (1-k)Pb-P)
(In fact, maximum gain is not zero, as there is interest revenue. Here I ignore it for simplicity)

This is the formula of put option with strike price=-(1-k)Pb (See image below).


The FDIC position is short on this put option, and that "Geithner put" is what enables the floor part of the fund's call option shown above.


 

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This blog is some thoughts on economics by a Japanese non-economist. Translated from my Japanese blog.